My VERY Early Oscar Predictions

Which will be edited furiously as I see more films.

I guess I am excited because it really has been a good year for movies. I haven't been this excited since 1998 (that was the year of Gods & Monsters, Saving Private Ryan, A Simple Plan, Shakespeare in Love, and Elizabeth)

Best Supporting Actor
Matthew Broderick – The Producers (even though he should be in the Best Actor category, I think the producers will put him here to give him a chance)
Frank Langhella – Good Night & Good Luck
Paul Giamatti – Cinderella Man
Ed Harris – A History of Violence
Bob Hoskins – Mrs. Henderson Presents
And at this point, I think it belongs to Frank Langhella, with a possible upset by Matthew Broderick

Best Supporting Actress
Patricia Clarkson – Good Night & Good Luck
Catherine Keener - Capote
Shirley McLain – Rumor Has It…
Rachel Weisz - The Constant Gardner
Robin Wright Penn – King Kong
Give it to Catherine Keener already!

Best Actor
Phillip Seymour Hoffman – Capote
Nathan Lane – The Producers
Heath Ledger – Brokeback Mountain
Joaquin Pheonix – Walk the Line
David Straithairn – Good Night & Good Luck
I’ve only seen three performances, but they were all amazing – everyone in this category should be proud, but right now, I’d say it goes to Phillip. Hopefully, Heath and Nathan are so incredible, they give the brilliant Hoffman a serious run for his money. This really is the best category this year, as there are several fantastic lead male performances.

Best Actress
Claire Danes – Shopgirl (I wish I liked the film more)
Felicity Huffman - Transamerica
Charlize Theron – North Country (Double Ugh!)
Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line
Ziyi Zhang – Memoirs of a Geisha
I haven’t seen Transamerica yet, but the spin is that Felicity already has this one. Poor Reese, who did such a great job.

Best Film
Brokeback Mountain
Good Night & Good Luck
King Kong
Munich
The Producers
I’m guessing Munich.

Best Director
Ron Howard – Cinderella Man
Ang Lee – Brokeback Mountain
Peter Jackson – King Kong
Fernando Mereilles – The Constant Gardner
Steven Spielberg – Munich
And again, Spielberg.


And yes, I do expect that Narnia, King Kong, and Harry Potter will be largely ignored. Or at least I hope. Even though they may be perfectly charming films, they'll rake in money hand over fist, and I'd like the see the smaller ones get nominated more. Although, the Oscars are people voting for themselves, and they often vote where the money goes... So I'm probably a bit wroing here, sadly.